“万村千乡”推广悖论及其解决方案

在农村消费市场存在差异的条件下，全国范围的以行政补贴和市场推广相结合的“万村千乡”推广方式将面临“推广悖论”，即工程的普遍服务职能与企业追求利润的目标之间的冲突，进而可能会造成财政补贴资金的浪费。应在不同区域采用不同的推广策略：发达地区农村，应以企业自主经营为主；具有一定消费市场潜力但企业开拓成本还比较高的地区，应行政补贴和市场推广相结合；尚不具备经营条件的农村地区，应加强基础设施建设，并提高农民收入水平，待时机成熟后再逐步推进。     

Forecasting category sales and market share for wireless telephone subscribers: a combined approach

The ability to forecast market share remains a challenge for many managers especially in dynamic markets, such as the telecommunications sector. In order to accommodate the unique dynamic characteristics of the telecommunications market, we use a multi-component model, called MSHARE. Our method involves a two-phase process. The first phase consists of three components: a projection method, a ring down survey methodology and a purchase intentions survey. The predictions from these components are combined to forecast category sales for the wireless subscribers market. In the second phase, market shares for the various brands are generated using the forecast of the number of subscribers that are obtained in Phase 1 and the share predictions from the ring down methodology. The proposed methodology produces the minimum Relative Absolute Error for each market as compared to the forecasts from each individual component in the first phase. The value of the proposed model is illustrated by its application to a real world scenario. The managerial implications of the proposed model are also discussed.     

Pre-Harvest Price Expectations for Corn: The Information Content of USDA Reports and New Crop Futures

This article examines the puzzle of why futures prices continue to react to USDA crop reports despite the fact that reports appear to be no longer "newsworthy," that is, provide no better production estimates than private forecasts. The information value of reports is measured in terms of their influence on rational agents' harvest-time corn price expectations, which are uncovered using a Hamilton-type modeling approach. Results show that reports are still "newsworthy," as they would contribute to agents' price expectations if released a day early. Thus futures price reactions, which closely reflect price expectations, are rational and consistent with efficient markets hypothesis.     

不列颠哥伦比亚理工学院考试方法探析

考试是衡量学生学习效果的一种手段,不列颠哥伦比亚理工学院采用合理的考核、考试方法,既提高了教与学的效果,也能正确评价学生对知识掌握的情况;采用严格、适当的升降级学籍管理制度,既提高了教学质量,又保证了培养的人才素质,在考试方法上为我国高校提供借鉴。     

基于方法分析的企业精细管理思想

本文认为,精细管理是企业管理走向科学化的必然要求,是科学管理发展到一定阶段的产物,是对管理实践的科学性概括和总结,是对企业管理创新的一个系统化梳理。精细管理具有系统化特征、理论与技术高度综合性特征、动态管理特征、实践性和全员参与特征;精细管理的闭路循环系统具有对应性,能够找到企业的每一个部门或个人的位置和相应的职责;精细管理在闭路循环系统中可以明确知道可能的效果倾向。文章提出,企业在实施精细管理的过程中,应适应变化的市场环境,把握精细管理的真正内涵;树立正确的企业精细管理理念,持之以恒;重构企业科学管理体系,走全员参与的精细管理之路。     

Are Securitizations in Substance Sales or Secured Borrowings? Capital‐Market Evidence*

Two standard‐setting approaches have emerged globally to guide the choice of accounting for securitizations: the control and components approach (SFAS No. 125 and SFAS No. 140) and the risks and rewards transfer approach (IAS No. 39). A lack of consensus about derecognition accounting is a major impediment to achieving convergence in global standards that must be resolved. Thus, both SFAS No. 140 and IAS No. 39 will be reexamined, and evidence pertinent to the debate is timely and important. In this study, we present evidence consistent with the view of credit‐rating analysts, who view many securitizations as, in substance, secured borrowings. Specifically, for a sample of originators applying sale accounting guidance in SFAS No. 125 / 140 during the period 1997‐2003, we show that off‐balance‐sheet debt related to securitizations has, on average, the same risk‐relevance for explaining market measures of risk (that is, CAPM beta) as on‐balance‐sheet debt. We also find that, in a returns and earnings association framework, the pricing multiple on securitization gains declines as the amount of off‐balance‐sheet debt increases, implying that investors take off‐balance‐sheet debt into account when assessing the valuation‐relevance of such gains. For those who advocate the control and components approach to securitization accounting, our results suggest that, at least for frequent securitizers, the put option arising from implicit recourse is a “missing piece” that is not currently accounted for when calculating securitization gains. Our results challenge the extant measurement standards in SFAS No. 140.     

企业家·生命·周期及其价值提升研究

互企业家生命周期是指企业家所面临的一个从起步到成长、从成长到成熟、从成熟到衰退的过程。本文从分析企业家生命周期的内涵出发,探讨了影响企业家生命周期的因素,企业家生命周期与企业家价值之间的关系,得出可以通过优化企业家生命周期来提升企业家价值;最后提出了一些优化企业家生命周期的具体途径。     

风险投资项目退出的时机与方式选择研究

文章对影响风险投资项目退出时机选择的微观因素和风险投资项目退出方式及其必要条件进行了深入分析,文章认为,风险投资项目退出的时机与方式选择具有动态性和一体性特点,遵循风险资本增值最大化的一般性原则,选择适宜的退出时机与方式对风险投资项目实现投资收益或锁定投资损失有着重要的意义。     

建筑工程无标底招标理论与实践

随着中国建筑业管理体制改革的不断深化，招投标制度在中国得以推广应用，但在招投标机制方面还存在不足，有待完善。文章通过无标底招投标的博弈论基础，分析了无标底招标的意义和作用，同时对无标底招标的实施提出了一些相应的措施和建议，最后指出，随着中国加入WTO，与国际接轨，推广无标底招投标方法是我国建筑业招投标制度改革的当务之急。     

关于收益法的经济价值论及其基础之研究

收益法是资产评估中最基本的一种方法,本文对资本价值理论及其价值论基础--效用论、边际效用论以及理论应 用(收益法)进行全面系统的研究。